Forecast Verification and Skill Assessment

About this course

Verification scores for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, contingency table measures, skill scores, and the design of a verification programme that changes practice.

What you will be able to do

• Construct and interpret a contingency table
• Select an appropriate score for a forecast type
• Explain why accuracy alone can mislead

Course content

3 modules · 4 resources

1. 1

   Contingency Tables

   Hits, misses, false alarms and their ratios.

   • Contingency table basics
   • Score reference sheet
2. 2

   Skill Scores

   Reference forecasts and what skill really means.

   • Skill relative to a reference
3. 3

   Probabilistic Verification

   Brier score, reliability and resolution.

   • Verifying probabilities