Numerical Modellingadvanced
Ensemble Forecasting and Probabilistic Guidance
From a single deterministic run to a defensible probability.
3 modules4 resources8 h1 trainee About this course
Ensemble construction, spread-skill relationships, probabilistic products and the communication of forecast uncertainty to decision-makers.
What you will be able to do
- Explain how ensemble perturbations are generated
- Interpret spread as a measure of forecast confidence
- Convert ensemble output into a calibrated probability
Course content
3 modules · 4 resources
1Building an Ensemble
Initial condition and model perturbations.
- Why one forecast is not enough
- Perturbation methods
2Spread and Skill
What spread does and does not tell you.
- Spread-skill relationships
3Probabilistic Products
Plumes, postage stamps and probability fields.
- Reading ensemble products