Climate Variability and Prediction

About this course

The drivers of interannual climate variability over the Indian region — ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole and intraseasonal oscillations — and how they are turned into seasonal outlooks, together with an honest treatment of long-range forecast skill.

What you will be able to do

• Explain ENSO and IOD influence on Indian seasonal rainfall
• Interpret a seasonal outlook and its stated confidence
• Distinguish climate normals from a forecast anomaly

Course content

3 modules · 5 resources

1. 1

   Drivers of Variability

   ENSO, IOD and intraseasonal oscillations.

   • ENSO and the Indian monsoon
   • Teleconnection reference
2. 2

   Climate Data

   Normals, anomalies and homogenisation.

   • Working with climate normals
   • Data homogenisation notes
3. 3

   Seasonal Prediction

   Model guidance and skill limits.